Article 262: NCP Roundtable

November 22, 2011

The teams are getting ready for the start of the season and a rush of preseason tournaments to begin over the next month. It is also time for NorCalPreps.com to take a look at the top basketball questions in the region heading into the season. See what NCP's Douglas Benton and Steve Hu think about breakout candidates, NorCal championship repeats and much more.

1. Who are the breakout teams/players to watch for?

Steve Hu: Freedom High features James O'Neal and Elliott Smith. After watching both during the summer, the Falcons will have at least two versatile players. O'Neal can score from anywhere on the court in different ways. O'Neal projects out to be a good shooting guard or wing player. Smith is long and plays at a good pace in terms of how he lets the game come to him and will likely be a small forward. Freedom will give Deer Valley a run in the Bay Valley League.

In the WCAL, Mitty will be the prohibitive favorite as last year's lone league loss was to St. Ignatius. But this year's Wildcat team returns national prospect, Stephen Domingo. St. Ignatius has Trevor Dunbar running the point as the Wildcats should be able to run up tempo and have easy transition points. Dunbar was elevated from his Oakland Soldiers 15 team to the Oakland Soldiers 17 Blue team in the middle of the summer. If his development and progress continues into the high school season, this sophomore should help St. Ignatius make a run at Mitty.

Douglas Benton: First for teams, I think Antelope will build off of last season's playoff run and subsequent summer success to be a team to watch out of the Sacramento area. The Titans boast a good core of players, led by Jarvis Watkins, and also get a transfer with Gabe Bealer to help round out the squad. Also the young talent at Freedom and Heritage will fans and coaches flocking out to Brentwood and Oakley. Freedom has O'Neal and Smith as good building blocks while Heritage has sophomore Shon Briggs and a transfer in with point guard George Johnson.

For players, Salesian's Markel Leonard will be asked to take over the point guard duties for the Pride and should be able to step in and be a key contributor from the outset this season. He has a good handle of his game and showed increased confidence with each contest he played this summer. Also, look for Center's Christopher Smith to really shine as the unquestioned leader for the Cougars. After playing with good inside players the past two years, Smith should be counted on to carry more of the offensive load and has the ability to put up points in a hurry.

2. Which of the five NorCal champions have the best chance to make a return trip to the state title game?

Steve Hu: Salesian will have the best chance as they have too many interchangeable pieces. The Pride lose Dominic Artis to Findlay Prep, but guards Mario Dunn and Leonard will more than fill the backcourt duties. Jabari Bird is coming on as another national prospect for the 2013 class. The Pride have the most talent of any Division IV program in Northern California.

Mitty has probably the top prospect in the region in Aaron Gordon. If a new back court emerges, the Monarchs can have the core to make a return trip to state.

Douglas Benton: The short answer is all five reigning NorCal champions have chances at repeating their title efforts, but the best option appear to be Salesian. Salesian should be able to stay close to the level it was at last year due to a very young roster and continual development under head coach Bill Mellis and his staff. Mitty boasts a game changer in Gordon, but it will have to deal with Sacramento now in Division II. De La Salle looks to be more explosive compared to last year, but Division I is always a daunting task to work through and Bishop O'Dowd is still dangerous despite losing 5-star forward prospect Brandon Ashley.

3. What are the best leagues in Northern California?

Steve Hu: Delta River League has Sheldon, Jesuit, Pleasant Grove, and Oak Ridge as teams who have playoff aspirations and also probably will have over 10 Division I prospects from the league in the next two years. Sheldon and Jesuit will probably be in the NCP top 10 team rankings throughout the year and will probably see each other in the post season.

The West Catholic League has Archbishop Mitty, St. Ignatius, and Sacred Heart Cathedral as their top tier teams with players including Gordon, Domingo, and Taylor Johns. But teams like Serra, St. Francis, and even Archbishop Riordan look to have their moments. Serra has Stephen Grosey and Jacqui Biggins stepping up while St. Francis returns a strong frontcourt in Abu Tratter and Drew Dickey. Riordan has been in rebuilding mode but have promising Bay Area Hoosier teammates Graham Gilleran and Ross Jones.

Douglas Benton: The top two leagues are the DRL and the WCAL due to elite teams at the top with depth to follow. The DRL is led by Sheldon, but Jesuit, Pleasant Grove and Oak Ridge are all quality teams and Folsom could be in for a bounce back season. The WCAL is always in this discussion led by Mitty at the front with St. Ignatius, Sacred Heart Cathedral, Serra and St. Francis to follow. While last year's senior class didn't produce a high number of college prospects, expect that to increase over the next two years.

Other leagues which should be fun to watch are the BVAL (Heritage, Freedom, and Deer Valley) and the Sierra Foothill League, which is down some in talent but produces some of the better atmospheres of any league in the area.

4. What developments in the NCAA in the past summer do you think will affect recruiting the most?

Steve Hu: Conference realignment has been dictated by financial reasons and primarily for the football programs. But its impact is also going to affect the basketball programs. For a basketball power conference like the Big East Conference to lose Syracuse and Pittsburgh to the Atlantic Coast Conference, how does that affect a player's decision to go to another Big East Conference school like Georgetown? If Air Force, Boise State, and San Diego State leave the Mountain West Conference for the Big East Conference, then would a California recruit who would have originally considered in state San Diego State be more apt to play more of his conference games away from the west coast where his family presumably resides? Another example is Brigham Young who just joined the West Coast Conference but is also being courted by the Big East Conference. The West Coast Conference has done well even before Brigham Young joined but can basketball only conferences attract the top tier recruits still in this era of realignment that are predicated on BCS football finances.

The removal of the unlimited phone calls and text messages ban was inevitable. In addition, social media access has been extended. Fighting innovation and technology by the antiquated and fossilized NCAA was pointless as there is no real way of policing these modes of communication. In addition, there will be an April and July evaluation period for college coaches. The trend in the last decade has been more college transfers. If the relationship and communication is more open and free during the recruiting process and more evaluation is allowed, then the hope would be that there are fewer transfers after the prospect commits.

Douglas Benton: Thus far, the impact on West Coast programs and conferences has been mild in terms of conference realignment. Colorado and Utah didn't grab a Northern California recruit in the 2012 class for the Early Signing Period, though Colorado did well in Southern California. I wouldn't expect conference shifting to have major impacts on the majority of local prospects in the near future.

The recent NCAA rule updates all signal a more open system to go about recruiting, which is to the advantage of the player and the college. It will allow for more comprehensive scouting of potential scholarship offered prospect to hopefully limit mistakes. Better communication will also allow schools to get to know players better to avoid personality conflicts once a player gets on campus. This is something I've felt baseball has been ahead on with its system and it's good to see basketball moving in this direction.

5. Which preseason games/tournaments are you most looking forward to in 2010?

Steve Hu: Nor Cal Tipoff in Newark features over 30 Division I projected prospects in the fourteen team field. The field also features half of the top 20 NCP preseason ranked teams (coming out soon). The last weekend of November will validate (or invalidate) the NCP prognosticators.

East West Invitational in Dougherty Valley will have six games with five of the top 10 NCP preseason ranked teams in mid December. Another tune-up before league play for the teams.

Douglas Benton: I'll focus on two tournaments I'll be watching this December is the Fr. Barry Tournament at Jesuit and the Gridley Invitational Basketball Tournament. At Jesuit, the host Marauders will be joined Bishop O'Dowd, Oakland Tech, Sheldon and St. Ignatius as well as some good out of the area competition. In Gridley, we will see Jesuit again with Sacramento, Newark Memorial, College Park, St. Francis-Mountain View, Dublin and Salesian.

6. Which teams do you think will be challenging themselves the most?

Steve Hu: Berkeley and Sheldon will play against each other in the season. Berkeley will also be playing against Weston Ranch, Franklin, McClymonds, Bishop O'Dowd, Pleasant Grove, and Salesian while Sheldon has McClymonds, St. Ignatius, Archbishop Mitty, Bishop O'Dowd, Salesian, and the Holiday Classic in Torrey Pines. Give Sheldon the overall most difficult schedule as they have a tougher league schedule as well.

Both teams will be battle tested and the challenging schedule should prepare them for the postseason. An analogy would be like an early stage Silicon Valley startup with a core of ten or so employees who battle through early and difficult situations to see if their venture is acquisition worthy. Similarly, these basketball teams of twelve on the roster who have challenging schedules will want to find out earlier though challenging games whether or not that they have what it takes to take their game public (IPO pun).

Douglas Benton: Sacramento does a good job of challenging itself both with local competition and out of area standouts in preparing for a long season. The Dragons will take part in the Gridley tournament and the Oaks Christian tournament as well as hosting the St. Hope Classic, which features a number of tough Southern California squads. Salesian also will be heavily tested with trips to Gridley and the City of the Palms Classic before playing Rodriguez, Berkeley and Sacramento heading into and in 2012.