Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Artice 163: NorCal Playoff Roundtable

March 8, 2011

The NorCal playoffs are upon us with numerous storylines to dissect over the next two weeks, including dominant No. 1 seeds in Division II and IV as well as star power in Division I. Prior to the games tipping off, the NorCalPreps.com staff gave their thoughts on what will unfold from underrated teams to breakout performers and of course, predictions.

1. Which teams have the best chance of winning a potential state title?

Carl Foster: Salesian in Division IV and St. Joseph in Division V.

Douglas Benton: If it gets to this point, Salesian has a great opportunity to win its second state title in three years with a deep and talented team in Division IV. Another NorCal possibility is St. Joseph in Division V. The Pilots have an experienced point guard in Jacari Whitfield and one of the best senior post prospects in Brendan Keane.

Lee Hubbard: Salesian. A very deep team with talent like LA schools. With Dominic Artis, Bryce Thompson and Jabari Bird in guard spots, the Chieftains will be very hard to stop on the perimeter.

Lorenzo Harris: Salesian has both the talent and motivation to win its second state title in 3 years. Last season, the Pride was 4 points shy of returning to the state finals and has not allowed the loss of their best player for numerous games and forfeit losses in what many consider an unfair ruling by the NCS to affect their play on the court. Playing with a chip on its shoulders gives Salesian a huge edge.

Steve Hu: Division I would favor Southern California teams as they have several D1 prospects. Ryan Anderson is a Boston College commit for Poly, Long Beach. Corona Centennial has New Mexico bound Dominique Dunning. Taft has Spencer Dinwiddie going to Colorado and a big time post prospect in Kevin Johnson. Castro Valley, Oakland, and Sheldon have some nice 2011 D1 prospects, but give the edge to the Southern California teams. Whichever team comes out of the brutal Southern California bracket will be the title favorite. Division II could have a battle of sophomore stars in Mitty's Aaron Gordon and Lincoln San Diego's Robinson twins. Once again, the Southern California bracket is a tougher bracket. Hoover San Diego is the sixth seed and has Arizona commit big man Angelo Chol. Lincoln San Diego also has UCLA commit Norman Powell. Mitty would seem to be the only serious Northern California opponent but give the big edge to the Southern California survivor. Division III should favor the Northern California representative. The bigs from Northern California should overpower the Southern California bracket. Division IV will have Salesian as the clear overall favorite. Division V is a tossup between the two regions.

2. What are some under the radar teams to look out for regardless of division?

Carl Foster: Some of the under the radar teams are Santa Teresa (will give Sheldon a good game), Northgate (will beat Antelope and Chico in making the semis), El Cerrito (will reach the NorCal finals), Sacred Heart Prep (makes the NorCal finals and gives Salesian a great game) and St. Elizabeth (a 12 seed and will make the NorCal semis).

Douglas Benton: Oakland is a dangerous one and down team and should beat Jesuit before falling in a close contest to No. 1 Castro Valley. Las Lomas will reach the semi-finals and give Mitty its best game in the NorCal D2 playoffs. In Division IV, St. Patrick/St. Vincent have a bona fide scorer in Robbie Herndon and nice complementary parts to make a run at the NorCal semi-finals and upset Sacred Heart Prep. Mid-Peninsula is an interesting team in Division V that could have made a run, but was dealt a blow in having to play St. Joseph in the second round. This could be an interesting opener for the Pilots.

Lee Hubbard: You can never count out a Frank Allocco coached team at De La Salle and Oakland in Division I. Chico is pretty good. They have Sterling Smith and have some size and could be a dark horse in Division II. If Stuart Wesonga can get on a roll, it can be a San Marin-Sac High final. The bottom half of the Division III bracket is wide open and Sacred Heart Cathedral can be another dark horse. In Division IV, Sacred Heart Prep is a very talented team, is well-coached and has the McConnell brothers.

Lorenzo Harris: Despite a No. 2 seed, San Marin has only emerged in the last two weeks and is only ranked 5th in its division in NorCal. Which team will show in the NorCals - the one that beat O'Dowd and El Cerrito to win the NCS title or the team that lost to Montgomery and Terra Linda by a combined 46 points?

Steve Hu: Division I - Sheldon. After a poor showing early in the season, Sheldon is clicking towards the second half of the season. Any of their starting five can give a big game changing performance. Division II - Las Lomas. They have a high octane offense that can keep them in games. But can they handle the bigger teams down the stretch? Division III - Bishop O'Dowd. It is funny to say that Bishop O'Dowd is an under the radar team. But not winning league and not reaching the section finals can give that impression. But the core of last year's championship finalist team is still intact to make a run. Division IV - Sacred Heart Prep. Prolific offense and solid fundamental guard play could cause matchup problems for any opponent. Division V - University. After getting pasted by St Joseph in the NCS finals, University would seem to be on a downward trend. But Coach Randy Bessolo should be able to tweak things to get his team's high powered offense back on track. A third match with St. Joseph for the Northern California title would not be surprising.

3. Who are the top players to watch?

Carl Foster: Denzel Copeland - Santa Theresa, Stuart Wesonga - San Marin, Brandon Ashley - O'Dowd, Brendan Keane - St. Joes', Jabari Bird - Salesian, Darius Nelson - Sheldon, Jabari Brown - Oakland, Juan Anderson - Castro Valley, Roderick Bobbitt - Castro Valley, Reed McConnell - Sacred Heart Prep, Eric Nelson II - El Cerrito, Darius Johnson - St. Elizabeth, Robert Garrett - Sacramento, Aaron Gordon - Mitty, Ben Freeland - Montgomery, Connor McGrath - Serra

Douglas Benton: These teams all have excellent players at the forefront and one of the reasons they are still alive in the NorCal playoffs. What follows is a list of players who will impact the most in each division. For Division I, it's Darius Nelson of Sheldon. He is a bona scorer who can take over a game with his shot and driving ability. If he can string complete games together for a week, Sheldon will be headed back to Power Balance Pavilion. In Division II, it's Sterling Smith of Chico. The Wildcats are the big unknown in this division and Smith has put up some great numbers this year. Can he carry Chico into the finals? Division III could hinge on the play of super junior Brandon Ashley of Bishop O'Dowd. He is a polished post prospect who can command double team and control the glass. If he can stay out of foul trouble, the Dragons could repeat as NorCal champions. Division IV is the most clear cut bracket on the boys side and if the Pride can get the solid play point guard Dominic Artis has given them this year, nobody will touch them. The 2012 prospect has become more consistent with his jumper and does a nice job of getting to his spot on the floor. Point guard is also the key position in Division V with Jacari Whitfield of St. Joseph. The Pilots will already have a mismatch with Brendan Keane on the block and if Whitfield can dictate the game with his quicknes, it gives them two decided advantages.

Lee Hubbard: Darius Nelson (Sheldon), Roderick Bobbitt (Castro Valley), Jabari Brown (Oakland), Aaron Gordon (Mitty), Sterling Smith (Chico), Robert Garrett (Sacramento), Darius Graham (Sacramento), Stuart Wesonga (San Marin), Brandon Ashley (Bishop O'Dowd), Jabari Bird (Salesian), Reed McConnell (Sacred Heart Prep), Will McConnell (Sacred Heart Prep), Jacari Whitfield (St. Joseph), Brendan Keane (St. Joseph), Noah Springwater (University)

Lorenzo Harris: Juan Anderson/Roderick Bobbitt-Castro Valley, Jabari Brown/TJ Taylor-Oakland, Darius Nelson/Ramon Eaton-Sheldon, Stuart Wesonga-San Marin, Brendan Keane/Jacari Whitfield-St. Joe's, Ben Freeland-Montgomery, Max Fujii-Analy, Chad Haysbert-Center, Noah Springwater-University, Sterling Smith-Chico, Eric Nelson-El Cerrito, Chukwuemeka Iroegbu-Franklin, Robert Garrett/Erik Kinney-Sac, Alex Simmons-St. Mary's (Stockton), Treaven Duffy/Kevin Stafford-Las Lomas, Robbie Herndon-St. Pat's, Denzel Copeland/Trevor Priest-Santa Teresa, Brandon Ashley/Richard Longrus-O'Dowd, Jamaree Strickland-Mack, Dominic Artis/Freddie Tagaloa-Salesian, Parker Uu/Akachi Okugo-Jesuit, Glenn Baral-St. Mary's, Will and Reed McConnell-Sacred Heart Prep, Josh Fox/Taylor Johns-Sacred Heart Cathedral, Rodrigo Puliceno-Burlingame, Travis Pacos/Amadi Udenyi-De La Salle, Aaron Gordon/Kyle Toth-Mitty, Robert Duncan-Granite Bay, John Peska/Devin Murphy-Woodcreek

Steve Hu: In Division I, Juan Anderson and Jabari Brown. Anderson has had a near flawless season while Brown has had an up and down senior year with injuries and his team having losing stretches. But both are peaking now in the playoffs and are capable of carrying a team. A rematch of their preseason matchup is possible for the Northern California semifinals. In Division II, Aaron Gordon and Treaven Duffy. Gordon has also had a near flawless season as well. Duffy is having a breakout year. An offensive slugfest is in the making between Mitty and Las Lomas in the semifinals. Division III features the most high rated post prospects. Sacramento's Robert Garrett, El Cerrito's Eric Nelson, Burlingame's Rodrigo Puliceno, SHC Josh Fox and Taylor Johns, O'Dowd's Ashley and Longrus, Mission's Theo Hill, Center's Chad Haysbert, and San Marin's Wesonga. In Division IV, the BSAL is well-represented with players from Salesian, St. Mary's Berkeley, and St. Patrick/Vincent. SHP has the three McConnell brothers (Reed, Cole and Will). Division V Mid-Peninsula has a hidden scorer in Lydell Cardwell. If he can light it up, his team has the personnel to match up well with St. Joseph to give them a run in the second round.

4. Which players are in line for breakout performances in NorCals?

Carl Foster: Mario Dunn - Salesian, D'Erryl Williams II - Sheldon, Dulani Robinson - McClymonds, Cole McConnell - Sacred Heart Prep, Robert Upshaw - Granite Bay, Elliott Pitts - De La Salle

Douglas Benton: Castro Valley junior guard Dawson Johnson had a good NCS Division I final and if he can step up along with the big three, Castro Valley will be a daunting out of the NorCal playoffs. He has nice handles and is a non-ranked prospect to watch for 2012. Antelope's Jarvis Watkins was instrumental in the upset win over Woodcreek with his ability to get to the rim off of his dribble. Another rising 2012 prospect to look for this week. El Cerrito Sophomore guard Marcellus Pippins can score in bunches when he gets hot and strong play out of him can make the Gauchos a very intriguing team the NorCal D3 playoffs. While he is already a known name, David Andoh of St. Mary's-Berkeley will use these playoffs as a springboard to a big summer. He is a versatile forward with an expanding confidence in his offensive game. Mid-Peninsula senior Lydell Cardwell is averaging 24 points per game and showed well at points on the summer circuit. Can he use a big March to garner a college opportunity?

Lee Hubbard: Shawn Hadnot of Sacramento is an up and coming sophomore forward. Jabari Bird should have a monster playoff to start cementing his high school legacy. Jacari Whitfield has been there. He's battle tested and can cement himself as one of the great guards at St. Joseph. Also, 6-foot-5 forward Josh Fox of Sacred Heart Cathedral. If Fox can get it going, they have a chance to upset Bishop O'Dowd in a possible second round match-up.

Lorenzo Harris: While St. Mary's Chris Magalotti is ranked No. 21 in NCP's 2011 Top 40, Alex Simmons is the man on this team and will improve his stock considerably during the NorCal regionals.

Steve Hu: For Division I, the Sheldon starting sophomore duo of Dakarai Allen and D'erryl Williams. If these two combine for 20 points per, expect Sheldon to make a serious run to state. Sheldon's defense translates into their offense. Hence, if these two don't score, then expect Sheldon to go home early. Division II has Ben Freeland of Montgomery. This 6-foot-10 center has the size to match up with either Mitty or St. Mary's Stockton. If Montgomery wins it all, he has to put up consistent double doubles in each game. In Division III, Stuart Wesonga has been putting up 20 points plus 20 rebounds plus in the regular season and in the NCS playoffs. There is no reason why he would not continue this trend in the playoffs. He'll have to in order for San Marin to advance. O'Dowd's Longrus is often overshadowed by national star Ashley. But Longrus is great with the hustle plays and defensive tenacity - he'll need it if O'Dowd expects to make a return trip to finals. Watch for David Andoh of St. Mary's Berkeley in Division IV. After finishing a solid but not spectacular first full season, he'll have to pick it up in the playoffs as a fourth match against Salesian is in the seeding. If St. Mary's wants to make a return to state title like last year, Andoh will have to show why he is a top tier national prospect. In Division V, watch for Noah Springwater of University. A prolific scorer who will be heading out to Columbia next year, his team lost the NCS finals to St. Joseph. They've lost the first two games this year but a third match is possible but only winnable if Springwater starts shooting to his potential.

5. What potential match-ups are the most intriguing?

Douglas Benton: A potential rematch of Castro Valley-Sheldon in the Division I finals would be very entertaining and features some of the toughest match-ups in the region. I also like the first round match-up in D2 of St. Francis-Mountain View and Woodcreek, which is a rematch of the NorCal title game from a year ago. I think most fans would be very excited about a possible Bishop O'Dowd-San Marin final in what should be a lively gym on Saturday night. With the rivalry and familiarity of Salesian and St. Mary's-Berkeley, this possible D4 final will be great theater at Folsom High School. In Division V, I like a possible second round tilt with Mid-Peninsula and St. Joseph. Can a scoring star top a talented team in a tournament format?

Lee Hubbard: I will say some of the better match ups in the divisions will include a potential match-up between Bishop O`Dowd and Sacred Heart in D3. This is intriguing as it pits a WCAL team up against an east bay team. St. Mary's versus Salesian in DIV will be another good battle of teams that have played each other the entire year.

Lorenzo Harris: The most intriguing match-up would be an O'Dowd-San Marin rematch.

Steve Hu: Division I - McClymonds and De La Salle. Mack's interior size against the DLS system. The contrast would be an interesting matchup. Division II - Mitty and Las Lomas. Can the Las Lomas two scorers in Duffy and Kevin Stafford offset Aaron Gordon and the Monarch team offensive schemes? Division III - San Marin against anybody. Wesonga in the last few weeks has probably separated him as the top post player in Northern California. A potential second round matchup would have him against Center's Chad Haysbert. A semifinal matchup would be against either O'Dowd's twin dragons again or against SHC's Fox/Johns. And a finals matchup could be against Sacramento's Robert Garrett. A successful run against that gauntlet would solidify Wesonga as the top post player this year in Northern California. Division IV - Salesian and SHP. Sacred Heart Prep has the scorers to put up numbers. But the question would be if they have the defense to slow down Saleisan. Division V - St. Joseph and Mid-Peninsula. Mid-Peninsula has enough interior size to give Brendan Keane a battle. And Mid-Peninsula has the guard play to keep up with St. Joseph.

6. Prediction time: Who makes the NorCal finals and eventually wins a NorCal title?

Carl Foster: Division I - Castro Valley vs. Sheldon for Title - Castro Valley by 6 points. Division II - Montgomery beats Mitty for Title - Eight point victory. Division III - Bishop O'Dowd beats El Cerrito for the Title - BOD by 4 points. Division IV - Salesian beats Sacred Heart Prep at buzzer for Norcal Title by 1! Division V - St. Joes' squeaks by Pinewood for Norcal title.

Douglas Benton: Division I - Castro Valley will beat Sheldon in the finals. Teams need to find their "it" factor to make a state run and the Trojans have found theirs. Division II - Mitty over Chico. The Monarchs are the clear favorite to win this division, but don't discount a talented Chico club which has a star guard to lean on. Division III - Bishop O'Dowd over Sacramento. Taking a loss is never a good thing, but expect the early exit from the NCS playoffs to refocus O'Dowd as it defends its title. Division IV - Salesian over St. Mary's-Berkeley. The Pride has too much talent and depth and will avenge last year's NorCal final loss. Division V - St. Joseph over University. Star players step up this month and the Pilots have a real good start in Keane, who should have a dominant run.

Lee Hubbard: Division I - Sheldon and Castro Valley in a pick'em with Sheldon winning. Division II - Mitty will win. Division III - Bishop O'Dowd and Sacramento will play in a rematch of last year's final and O'Dowd wins in a pick'em game. Division IV - Salesian is the winner. In Division V - University overcomes a section final loss to St. Joseph to win the D5 title.

Lorenzo Harris: Division I - Castro Valley. Division II - Mitty. Division III - O'Dowd. Division IV - Salesian. Division V - St. Joe's

Steve Hu: Division I - Castro Valley/Sheldon rematch winner. Castro Valley has had a near unblemished season. But expect the Sheldon sophomores to complement Darius Nelson and Ramon Eaton and give the Huskies a home court state final matchup in addition to avenging the earlier loss to Castro Valley. Division II - Mitty/Montgomery winner. Mitty will win by going inside to Gordon but the Mitty perimeter shooting will be the difference in this matchup. Division III - Toughest bracket to pick, especially the bottom half. The winner of the O'Dowd/San Marin rematch in the semi finals will beat Sacramento in the finals. Give San Marin the edge as they are peaking and Wesonga seems undeterred of a long playoff run. One of the most figuratively hungry players. Division IV - Salesian. Their second 5 could probably be a formidable starting 5. Division V - University. St. Joseph is the easy pick and clear favorite. But University is well coached and will make the necessary adjustments with a third time's a charm anecdote.

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