This week's weekly spin tackles the tough questions for the state tournament that starts today around the region. The NCP staff offers their projections about who wins each division, best shots at a state title and players to watch over the next two weeks.
Which teams have the best chance of winning a state title?
Douglas Benton: It could be a very good year on the state level for boys basketball in Northern California. Division II looks to have a return champion from the region with Mitty or Newark Memorial while Bishop O'Dowd and Sacred Heart Cathedral are the top candidates in Division III. Salesian will have to contend with a likely strong team from Southern California, but have the talent make-up to win a second state title. The wild card in this group may be a De La Salle type team in Division I, which can impose its style and defeat a favored Southern California opponent like Mater Dei or Long Beach Poly.
Division I will come down to De La Salle and Sheldon with the Spartans being able to dictate style of play and win their second straight NorCal title. Division II brings us a rematch between Mitty and Newark Memorial. The Cougars will make this a much closer game than the December meeting between these two programs, but Aaron Gordon makes too many plays late to propel the Monarchs to the win. Division III should feature a Sacred Heart Cathedral-Bishop O'Dowd final and the Fightin' Irish use their balance and experience to knock off the Dragons run at a state crown. Salesian is the clear top team in Division IV and will capture the NorCal title over Modesto Christian. Finally in Division V, St. Joseph makes it back to the state finals despite graduating a strong senior class in beating Capital Christian.
Cameron Schott: Any team in the Division I bracket will have a tough time winning a state title assuming that national powerhouse Mater Dei will probably reach the finals. Nonetheless, De La Salle would be my favorite to reach the finals in that bracket, but I wouldn't expect them to win the title. Sheldon is a team that they could meet in the NorCal finals.
For Division II, defending champion Archbishop Mitty seem poised to make another state run behind standout junior Aaron Gordon. Mitty has already beaten three teams in the bracket (Serra, Newark Memorial, and Mayfair) and have some experience from last year's squad. It is always tough to beat a team twice, which they may have to do if Newark reaches the NorCal finals, but Gordon is always a tough match-up and he has a good supporting cast around him to potentially win the title.
In Division III, Bishop O'Dowd and Sacred Heart Cathedral are two teams that can be state contenders. Bishop O'Dowd's height is tough to stop while Sacred Heart Cathedral's balanced scoring attack gives the offense multiple options. Look for these teams to meet in the NorCal finals, but O'Dowd's height might be too much for the Irish.
Salesian should be the favorite to run through Division IV. They have been dominant the entire season and five-star junior Jabari Bird headlines a squad that features multiple future Division I athletes. The Pride should have the best chance of winning a state title, but you can never count out a Cinderella potentially ruining their chances. Look for Modesto Christian to meet them in the NorCal finals.
St. Joe's would be my favorite to reach State in Division V again led by sophomore Temidayo Yussuf. Capital Christian is another team that can surprise and make it to Power Balance Pavilion, but senior Matt Donlan would need multiple stellar performances to go all the way.
Steve Hu: D1: This De La Salle team is arguably better than last year's finalist team. If recruiters do not know who Elliott Pitts was, then they will know him after this tournament run. If the wing hybrid junior can play to his potential, the Spartans can have a chance to avenge a likely rematch with Mater Dei who is the overwhelming favorite as they boast several Division I NCAA prospects. Regardless of who comes out of the North, Mater Dei will defend their title.
D2: Newark is the most balanced of the teams in this Northern California bracket as they have good guards and solid post players with a deeper bench than top seed Archbishop Mitty. The seeding should play out with a Newark and Mitty final with Newark pulling it out and then parlaying it into a state title.
D3: Size will be the difference as Bishop O'Dowd and Sacred Heart Cathedral look to have a rematch in the finals as the two teams met in last year's playoffs. The Dragons have the size to propel them to a return trip to the state finals. If they make it, the top two seeds in the Southern California bracket will have a size disadvantage as last year's winner, Lutheran La Verne, dropped to D4 with Arizona committed post player, Grant Jerrett. With that said, I think the senior laden Bishop O'Dowd program becomes state champs.
D4: The overwhelming favorite to come out of Northern California is Salesian. If the Pride make it to the finals, will they face a school known more as a football power in Serra Gardena or the aforementioned Lutheran La Verne. Serra has intriguing forwards in Daddy Ugbede and Dakarai Tucker while Lutheran has Jerrett. Regardless, the Pride will have to deal with a skilled post player in either case and I see the South triumphant again this year.
D5: The assumption would be a rematch between St. Joseph and St. Bernard in the finals. Last year, the Pilots were a senior led team that was able to capture state. This year, the Vikings are the more experienced group and have the size advantage. The Pilots have an up and comer in sophomore Temidayo Yussuf, but will there be enough size in a possible rematch for the Pilots. St. Bernard avenges and gives the South a 3-2 advantage for the boys championship games.
Ell-Sean Smith: Div. II Boys-Archbishop Mitty with Gordon. Haven't had the pleasure of seeing him play yet, but he is obviously THE game-changer of the region and they won it all last year, plus he's the type of player that can carry a team all the way. Div. III-O'Dowd with their size is the clear favorite. Div. IV- Salesian...end of discussion. Div. V-St. Joseph with a solid team and Lippi coaching they have an excellent chance bring back another state title.
Div. I DLS-Sheldon. DLS wins it keeping the score in the low 40s. Sheldon has the athletes, and they did beat Jesuit in a low-scoring affair, but this is what the Spartans excel at doing. The slowdown negates the athleticism and Sheldon, outside of Hampton who doesn't shoot often enough, isn't a great perimeter shooting team. Div. II Mitty-Newark-Memorial. Mitty, too much Gordon. Div. III SHC-BOD. O'Dowd's size and Longrus (although not big in the scoring department, he has been strong on the boards) and for these reasons they get past Foothill. Plus the guards have helped more than they've hurt their quest to get back to state. Div. IV Salesian, Salesian, and Salesian. Did I already mention Salesian? They are a Div. I squad masquerading as a Div. IV team. Div. V St. Joseph's. Lippi always has them prepared and that will be the difference.
What are some under the radar teams to look out for regardless of division?
Douglas Benton: Pleasant Grove is a No. 8 seed in Division I and will host Castlemont in first round play. A win would mean a trip to De La Salle for a team which could easily have two wins over No. 4 seed Jesuit. The Eagles are well coached with good depth, led by junior Malik Thames and Colfax Nordquist. In Division IV, Cardinal Newman has the talent to make a trip to Folsom High School on March 17. Kenny Love is averaging nearly 15 points per game for the Cardinals, which lost to St. Patrick/St. Vincent in the semi-finals of the North Coast Section playoffs. Though not under the radar as a No. 3 seed in Division V and a section champion, Capital Christian has more athleticism than most teams in this field. Senior Matt Donlan leads a group of young talent which will look to challenge St. Joseph and Pinewood for a NorCal title.
Cameron Schott: Regardless of division, St. Patrick/St. Vincent has the athletes to overpower teams and make a surprise run in Division IV. It would not surprise me if they won their first two games, but a matchup with Modesto Christian would be tough for the young squad. They could still make a couple upsets, but Salesian seems to be the clear favorite for that division. Also in Division I there are multiple powerhouses that could outplay their seed. McClymonds can be a sleeper team if Jamaree Strickland returns to full health, and Freedom could make a surprise if the youth aren't scared of the big stage.
Steve Hu: D1: Freedom is an intriguing team as they are very young but loaded. It would not be a surprise if they get out of the first round and then give Sheldon a run in the second round. The team has a balanced core in guards Jelani Hardaway and James O'Neal while Elliott Smith mans the post.
D2: Antelope has only one loss but seems to have been lost in the shuffle the entire year. Gabe Bealer is a versatile junior who looked good for his E-Time Hoops club this past summer and he has carried over into the high school season as well. No one thinks that they have a chance against Mitty but Antelope should put up a good fight though.
D3: El Cerrito's core players are bit undersize but can see a possible rematch with Bishop O'Dowd. The Gauchos are guard oriented and can make some noise in the first few rounds as they will not face any team with a distinct size advantage.
D4: St. Patrick St Vincent made a nice run in NCS. The Bruins have emerging sophomore Jalen Canty who can throw his weight in the post. A possible rematch with Sacred Heart Prep is in the works as the Bruins defeated SHP last year in the playoffs as well.
D5: I said this about NCS and I will say it again. Matchups against complex systems are hard to prepare for. I believe that the University system is hard to game plan for and to adjust mid-game. I expect Coach Randy Bessolo to throw a few wrinkles in there against their opponents.
Ell-Sean Smith: Div. I-McClymonds. If Strickland is available watch Mack. Their record isn't the best, but they can win the ugly, 42-39 contest which is post-season stuff. They are a reminder of a Mack team in the early 2000s with Darrell Tucker that went deep into the post-season in this fashion. Div. III-Foothill of Sacramento. Well-coached by Drew Hibbs, who has previously won two state titles at Foothill. No size as Michael Bryson is tallest starter at 6-foot-4, and he roams the perimeter and can post up smaller players. That wouldn't be an issue against O'Dowd's size, but he will force a big outside with his perimeter shooting. Guards Kelly Bender and Anthony Williams aren't big at 5-foot-8 and 5-foot-11, but have an advantage on BOD's back court with speed and athleticism, especially on the defensive end.
Who are the top players to watch?
Douglas Benton: There are numerous players to watch in the upcoming state playoffs as we try to breakdown the top prospects by division. Division I provides a good backdrop for a 2013 battle between De La Salle's Elliott Pitts and Sheldon's Dakarai Allen as a pair of wing prospects on the rise. Division II is led by Mitty junior Aaron Gordon along with Newark Memorial guards Casey Norris and Joey Frenchwood, Serra forward Henry Caruso and Antelope junior Gabe Bealer. Division III will be led by strong seniors in Bishop O'Dowd star Richard Longrus, Sacred Heart Cathedral duo Taylor Johns and Josh Fox and Foothill-Sacramento senior Michael Bryson. Salesian is the class of Division IV with national recruit junior Jabari Bird, who is the top player on his side of the bracket. Another player to watch is Modesto Christian wing Raymond Bowles. Division V will have Donlan and the young talent of Capital Christian to go up against a good sophomore at St. Joseph in Yussuf.
Cameron Schott: Division I is loaded with future collegiate level athletes. Sheldon has multiple juniors who will be playing at the next level, headlined by defensive specialist Dakarai Allen and slashing guard D'Erryl Williams II. De La Salle features junior Elliott Pitts, who could become a big-time prospect in the future. Deer Valley has one of the top shot blockers in the nation with Marcus Lee along with three-point specialist Olajuwon Garner and do-it-all point guard Kendall Smith. Also, McClymonds features Lawrence Otis, Dalvin Guy, and Dulani Robinson, who are all NCP ranked prospects. If you're looking for star power, Division I is the bracket to watch.
The top prospect in the area, Aaron Gordon, will be playing in Division II with his Archbishop Mitty squad. He always puts on a show, and hopes to win back-to-back state titles. Also, Casey Norris from Newark Memorial will look to continue to his strong senior campaign and should be a Division I guard. Division III has the top 2012 player in Northern California with Richard Longrus. In addition, Sacred Heart Cathedral has senior duo Taylor Johns and Josh Fox who have been influential for the Irish all season. In Division IV, look directly at Salesian. Bird is the main player to watch, but look out for his supporting cast to steal some spotlight. Also, Raymond Bowles is one of the top under-the-radar juniors who can show his talents in the postseason. Finally in Division V, Matt Donlan is a senior who is beginning to pick up interest and can turn that into more offers over the state run.
Steve Hu: D1: If Jamaree Strickland plays and plays without fear from his past knee injuries, McClymonds could be an interesting team. Aside from a matchup with Deer Valley's Marcus Lee, McClymonds could possibly have a significant size advantage with Strickland and junior Dalvin Guy. Strickland is a top tier prospect because of his size and ability but injuries have diminished his minutes. An impressive showing in the postseason could propel his team and his recruiting.
D2: If Archbishop Mitty has games that are tightly contested, then expect Aaron Gordon to put up some huge numbers in points, rebounds, and blocks. If their games are runaway victories, then expect his numbers to be more pedestrian. For Gordon at this point in his high school career, it is about the number of state titles that he has won before moving on to a BCS level program.
D3: For top seed Sacred Heart Cathedral to make it to state, senior Taylor Johns will have to come up with some big games. The ultimate performance will be a possible rematch with Bishop O'Dowd that will require him to out play O'Dowd's interior.
D4: Former Modesto Christian standout Reeves Nelson has been in headlines for the wrong reasons. But current Crusader Raymond Bowles has been in the headlines for the right reasons and can score 20 points on any given night. If he is scoring efficiently, the Crusaders could pull it out in a possible finals matchup with Salesian.
D5: Capital Christian's Matt Donlan will need to put up big numbers scoring and rebounding in order to lead his Cougars to the finals. Donlan had a solid summer campaign and could also make his mark in this postseason.
Ell-Sean Smith: Gordon at Mitty; Bird at Salesian; Kyiron Thomas, Allen, and Williams at Sheldon; Parker Uu and Bryce Pressley of Jesuit; Pitts at De La Salle.
Which players are in line for breakout performances in NorCals?
Douglas Benton: Bella Vista gave Antelope a challenge in the semi-finals of the SJS Division II playoffs and could be a dangerous team in the state playoffs. It is paced by senior KJ Logue, who is steadily working his way into the Top 40 rankings and has drawn steady Division II interest. A first round win will give the Broncos a Saturday road game against Newark Memorial. Another player to watch continue to breakout is St. Patrick/St. Vincent sophomore Jalen Canty, who gives the Bruins a size advantage in Division IV. They made the NCS Division IV finals before losing to No. 1 Salesian and could use this momentum to reach the NorCal finals in meeting a Modesto Christian team with freshman post Anthony Townes for a possible semi-final game.
Cameron Schott: For breakout performances, I'll look towards the youth. In Division I, Elliott Pitts and Elliot Smith are both very projectable Division I athletes. Pitts, who already holds multiple offers, is a lights-out shooter with underrated athleticism. Smith is one of the top sophomores in the area with possibly the most potential in the bracket.
For Division II, Newark Memorial features another talented sophomore with point guard Joey Frenchwood. Frenchwood has had a good season already and has great poise for his age. Look for him to seize the opportunity and contribute with his silky jump shot. Only a freshman, Ivan Rabb will be a name to remember in Division III. Rabb is a long 6-foot-8 forward who could be a high major prospect when the time comes. He adds size to an already big Bishop O'Dowd squad and can use the title run to show off his talents to major colleges.
In Division IV, Salesian is headlined by junior Jabari Bird, but fellow juniors Mario Dunn and Markel Leonard are under the radar guys who can take advantage of the spotlight. Dunn is a quality combo guard who holds an offer from UC Irvine and Leonard is a true point guard who does all the little things to make a team complete. Finally in Division V, St. Joe's Yussuf is another one of the top sophomores who can look to make a splash in the recruiting world. Look for all of these prospects in their state run.
Steve Hu: As the Northern California playoffs get started this week, the world's largest gaming convention, Game Developers Conference (GDC), is also going on in Moscone Convention Center in the SOMA. Since I have to attend this over hyped conference for my day job (which is mostly sitting around and playing mobile games), here is a gaming theme behind the answers to this question.
D1: Teams facing Deer Valley will key on post player Marcus Lee. But I think Olajuwon Garner will have to make like Pac-Man and just gobble up as many points as possible. This will be especially true if the Wolverines have a rematch against McClymonds who destroyed them by 30 in an early season matchup. Garner will have to display his multi-faceted scoring abilities and dodge the maze of defenders like the voracious eating yellow sphere.
D2: Solid point guard play is key in the post season. So, in honor of Master Chief, Newark Memorial's Joey Frenchwood will have to mimic the protagonist in the Halo series. The sophomore point guard is cool like a cat under pressure and plays as a true point guard in that he looks to pass and setup his teammates. In addition, Frenchwood is key on the pressure defense and pressing schemes that head coach Craig Ashmore employs. Like any single player game like Halo, the key decision maker will have to make the right decisions as Frenchwood will have to do so for his Cougars to advance.
D3: Taylor Johns will have to play big, especially and literally if they have a rematch against Bishop O'Dowd. But once again, the point guard play will be a key factor as junior Khalil James has been stepping up in the latter half of the season and in the CCS playoffs. Like Sonic the Hedgehog, James is undersized but is a blur. Sonic is known as a habitual daredevil hedgehog and James will have to play with similar grittiness and tenacity in order for the Irish to go far.
D4: Markel Leonard is the Super Mario for his Salesian squad. Ironically, the Pride has another key player named Mario Dunn. But I believe the point guard play of Leonard will be the key in the Pride's results at the state finals. The junior has to play with same energy, hops, and decision making as the Nintendo icon.
D5: The original Donkey Kong game in 1981 had Donkey Kong defend the damsel while throwing barrels towards Jumpman. Well, one of the better defenders in this bracket is Central Catholic's John Fenton who averaged 15.3 points, 16.2 rebounds, 3.6 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game. Fenton is big post presence but also plays with hustle and agility in the open court. Fenton will have to be getting rebounds and blocking shots like the way Donkey Kong is throwing barrels in order for his Raiders to advance.
Ell-Sean Smith: Bryson at Foothill-Sacramento can shoot the lights out and must be accounted for at all times.
What potential match-ups are the most intriguing?
Douglas Benton: With De La Salle as the standard bearer in Division I, anytime it gets matched up with Sacramento area programs is entertaining. With the power in the division based in the Delta River League, the Spartans may go through Pleasant Grove, Jesuit and Sheldon if it wants to return to the state finals. In Division III, the contrasting size of Foothill-Sacramento and Bishop O'Dowd will make for an interesting semi-final. Bishop O'Dowd is a two-time state runner-up while Foothill head coach Drew Hibbs is a two time state winner. The Mustangs have no player over 6-foot-4 and Bishop O'Dowd has a frontline of players at least 6-foot-6. Antelope prides itself on its defense and will be tested in this plan in potentially going up against Gordon and Mitty. Some thought this may be a potential NorCal final before the seeds came out, but it could now make a very good semi-final with a trip to Power Balance Pavilion on the line.
Cameron Schott: A meeting between Sheldon and De La Salle seems to be a probable match-up for the NorCal Division I title, which would be an interesting game with contrasting styles. Sheldon contains lots of athletes while the Spartans run a slow, methodical half-court set. In Division II, Antelope may be the team most suited to upset Mitty. They have size with juniors Isaiah Ellis and Gabe Bealer, and if they can find ways to score outside of the paint they could be a Cinderella. One of the top match-ups I hope to see is Sacred Heart Cathedral vs. Bishop O'Dowd. These two teams can easily compete in Division I, and they have multiple athletes that could play in college. This could make for one of the best games in the postseason. For Division IV, the semis in the lower part of the bracket look to be interesting assuming Modesto Christian avoids an upset to play either SP/SV or Sacred Heart Prep. The winner, however, would be forced to play Salesian. Finally in Division V, Pinewood and Capital Christian could provide a problem for St. Joe's. The winner could be able to pull the upset.
Steve Hu: D1: McClymonds with a healthy Strickland would be the most complete and deepest team in the bracket. De La Salle would be the favorites based on last season's results and the current season's records, but a game between the two would be an interesting game in terms of matchups.
D2: Archbishop Mitty and Newark Memorial would pit the top player in Northern California in Aaron Gordon against a balanced Newark Memorial team. Gordon would have to have a monster game of 30 plus points and 15 plus rebounds to put the Monarchs over the top. The Cougars have the post players to slow down the Monarchs while they have a big advantage in the back court with Frenchwood and Casey Norris.
D3: If Sacred Heart Cathedral and Bishop O'Dowd play in a rematch from last year's playoffs, the Dragons will have the size advantage again. Freshman Ivan Rabb replaces Findlay prep departed Brandon Ashley. Add Pac-12 bound TJ Daniel and Richard Longrus, the Dragons should prevail again.
D4: Modesto Christian with athletes abound playing against a system based team in Sacred Heart Prep. Raymond Bowles can score inside and outside for the Crusaders while Cole McConnell is a crafty senior. The team that imposes their tempo should come out ahead.
D5: If Central Catholic can meet St. Joseph in the semi finals, then an interior matchup would be between the Pilots' Yussuf and the Raiders' Fenton. Yussuf is the athletic and agile post player while Fenton plays in a bruising manner. Big men tend to get into foul trouble and that could be a key stat between the two post players.
